Ramaphosa’s Magashule Headache: The Ace May Trump The King


By Musa Mdunge

 
On 17 November 2020, I attended a virtual church leadership meeting in which one of the leaders raised an issue of two centres of power. My political animal instinct jumped up with joy as the thought of the Botha-de Klerk; the Mbeki-Zuma and most recently the Zuma-Ramaphosa centres of power! It got me thinking that could it be that a new centre of power has arisen, one with similar virtues as these past ones but also one that is unique due to its timing and the players on opposite sides? 

Well, the two centres of power are between none other than the President of the Republic and ANC, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the Secretary-General of the ANC, Ace Magashule. What is unique is that given the level of divisions within the ANC, for the first since the ANC came into power, the President of the movement and the SG are not from one political camp and this has shifted how we have often associated the term to two centres of power. 

The traditional use of the term no longer only applies to a period where the President of the Republic and President of the ruling party are different people. Moreover, this normally occurs in a time of transition between one administration to another. In this case that is not the case. Ramaphosa is most likely to the leader of both state and the ruling party for the next two years at least, with a strong probability of being re-elected as ANC president in 2022 and South African president in 2024. 

However, the fact that both the Secretary-General and the Deputy Secretary-General are the administrative leaders of the ANC and thus exercise extensive power over branches and regions of the ANC, means that they have access to the source that feeds how the ANC moves in terms of policy formulations but also the rules of the game. Moreover, the fact that the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC is split in half between those who supported Ramaphosa and those who gave their vote to Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (Jacob Zuma proxy) is indicative of the gridlock that would and will continue to characterise Ramaphosa’s dual presidencies. 

Moreover, not only do the two centres of power between Luthuli House and the Union Building cause a gridlock but also impact the sense of direction the party is likely to take and how that informs government business. The Ramaphosa camp represents an attempt to revive institution-building by dealing with corruption both within government and the ANC, while promoting economic reforms in the ilk of Mbekism and the 1996 GEAR project (that is a debate for another day). On the contrary, Magashule’s camp has grabbed hold of the ideas of “radical economic transformation”, which they have done without a genuine appreciation and consideration for the triple challenges we face of poverty, unemployment, and inequality. Magashule’s camp has used the need for REC to advance an attack that Ramaphosa is anti-poor and anti-transformative and rather associate him with white monopoly capital. 

It is these dynamics that make Magashule’s arrest and possible prosecution for corruption related to a 2014 asbestos tender that may in political terms, offer seismic implications for the ANC and country last seen in the 2005 corruption charges against then Deputy President, Jacob Zuma. 

Glimpses of history repeating itself are already showing, with Magashule courting martyrdom and trying to play the victim of a political purge, arguing that the charges against him are nothing more than just a political cleansing of those who lost the 2017’s NASREC elective conference. 

As a result, two questions arise, how will the success or failure of prosecuting Magashule create a perception around South Africa’s ability to deal with corruption, especially when senior officials of the party and government are implicated? Moreover, in what way does his impending corruption case, create a launching pad for his political ambitions. You may ask, Musa why the second question. Well, let me be bold and say that the 2022 or the 2027 elective conference may see Magashule on the ballot for the presidency of the ANC! 

A man so embroiled in corruption allegations, Magashule may seek the highest office to stay out of jail but more so, to further entrench his hands in state coffers. You see South Africa’s long night of state capture may not end so long as Magashule hoovers around South African politics. However, paradoxically, standing up to him may further embolden his pursuit for power. So, could it be that Ramaphosa and the project of draining the swamp are damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t deal with the Magashule question. It looks to me like the ace may just “trump” the king! 

Article Tags

Ace Magashule

Cyril Ramaphosa

Corruption

political rivalry

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